Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
