Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Major Barriers in the Selection Process

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.